Voted in as a Pro Bowl quarterback? Check. More passing yards in a season than Brett Favre ever had as a Packer? Check. First playoff victory…

Before we kick off this playoff thing in football, I’d like to pause a minute to reflect upon my final statistics as a prognosticator in my first season keeping track of things like this: I went 176-79 on the year, which means I predicted the winner roughly 69% of the time (in other words, my average weekly record was 11-5). All I’m saying is it pays attention to pay attention to the game. Follow legitimate statistical patterns, study gameplanning tendencies, and you too can be as wildly successful as I am. Next year, I’m gunning for 75% and a much improved Upset Special record (I went a dismal 8-9 this year; I blame Al Davis for this). I went 11-5 in predicting the games of my beloved Packers (major misfire in the Tampa Bay debacle, but accurately predicted the Pittsburgh upset), but none of that really matters at this point, does it? Now it’s the playoffs, the games that people will remember long after they’re confined to hospital beds and sucking applesauce through a tube. If I had to make an abridged ranking of my favorite sporting events to watch on television, it would probably look like this:

1. Any NFL playoff game.
2. First-round games of the NHL playoffs.
3. (t) A World Cup match between the U.S.A. and a European nation, preferably England or France.
3. (t) Olympic hockey between U.S.A. and anyone, but preferably Canada or Russia.
5. The first two days of March Madness, especially if Gus Johnson is calling the game.
6. The 2009 Wimbledon slugfest between Andy Roddick and Roger Federer.¹
8. An MLB playoff game not involving the Red Sox or Yankees.
9. An MLB playoff game involving the Red Sox or Yankees playing anyone but each other, so as to provide a clear rooting interest.
12. An NBA playoff game.
101. The World Series of Poker.
445. WNBA highlights.
453. NASCAR.

Simply put, there’s nothing more engaging to me than the one-and-done atmosphere of my favorite (and the objectively dominant) sport in mid-January through the first Sunday in February. Even sweeter this year is the Packers return to the playoffs for the first time post-Favre. And if you think I haven’t run all the scenarios through my head where Green Bay plays (and beats) Minnesota on the way to the Super Bowl crown, you’re crazy. Alright, enough stalling. Let’s get to some previews already.

JETS AT BENGALS (4:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

This game pits the two most recent USC quarterbacks to find success at the next level (Say what you want about his football prowess, but Matt Leinart’s success at convincing cute twenty-somethings to share beer bongs and hot tubs with him is unparalleled). Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez square off in the first of the weekend’s three do-over matches from week 17. Go ahead and throw out last week’s walkover Jets win in the Meadowlands. You can also throw out any idea that this game is going to be a blowout by either team. The New York Jets are stockpiled with skilled defensive players, the most prominent of which is Pitt alum Darrelle Revis. The J-E-T-S ended the year with the best defensive ranking in the league thanks mostly to the huge advantage they had in passing defense. They averaged giving up only 154 yards a game through the air (in other words, a typical quarter and a half for Peyton Manning). The next closest team, the Buffalo Bills, gave up 30 more yards a game. Teams simply cannot or choose not to pass against the Jets, but does it mean much? Of the top ten teams in pass defense, only four of them are playoff contenders. In contrast, eight of the top ten teams in run defense (including those Jets) are in the playoffs. Football is first and foremost a passing league, so intuitively, you would think the Jets are prepared for a long run in the playoffs. We know Rex Ryan thinks so. But the Jets have beaten the likes of Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell, Jake Delhomme, J.T. O’Sullivan, Josh Freeman. Peyton Manning had 192 yards in a half against them before politely exiting two weeks ago. True, they held Matt Schaub and Tom Brady in check, but those were in the first two weeks, when teams have a harder time reading personnel and packages. Note that in the Patriots/Jets rematch in late November, Brady threw for 310 yards in an easy win.

Everyone who thought that Ced Benson would have a more relevant year than Matt Forte, raise your hand.

None of that may end up making a difference since the Bengals have in a few short years turned from an explosive, quick-strike vertical offense to one that prefers intermediate passing routes and grinding the ball between the tackles with the salvaged Cedric Benson. Since their bye in week 8, Cincy has been averaging just under 17 points a game. They’ve topped 20 points just twice: a 23-13 over the pathetic Lions and a 27-24 loss to the Chargers a few days after Chris Henry’s untimely death. Carson Palmer has only thrown for more than 250 yards once this season, a 314-yard explosion in that loss to San Diego. It’s clear that minus Henry and free agent departee T.J. Houshmanzadeh, the team does not threaten opponents with its ability to throw downfield. However, lets give huge kudos to the Bengals offensive line: they consistently opened holes for Cedric Benson, who averaged 96.2 yards per game (2nd in the league, only behind the incomparable Chris Johnson) and kept Carson Palmer upright (26 sacks through 15+ games). These accolades occurred largely without the help of first-round pick OT Andre Smith, who held out for most of training camp then immediately suffered an injury the first day after signing his rookie contract. How about guys like LT Andrew Whitworth, C Kyle Cook, and RG Bobbie Williams, who have started all 16 games this year and helped stabilize the offense in a trying and tumultuous year? The Bengals should be lauded for overcoming the psychological adversity that they have this year, and their 6-0 record against AFC North competition was the key statistic in capturing the division crown. I don’t like them as serious Super Bowl threats, but I do like them at home playing a rookie quarterback who has thrown more interceptions than anyone but Jay Cutler (let’s pause a minute to allow Bears fans to regain their sanity). Since this game is trending toward a 13-10 overtime victory, where time of possession, turnover differential, and field position are the key factors, you know it will invariably be a 35-28 contest that leaves everyone’s palms upturned. Whatever. All I have to do here is pick the winner.
Bengals by six.

EAGLES AT COWBOYS (8:00 p.m. Saturday, NBC)

It took months of training, but DeSean Jackson has finally learned how to celebrate without spiking the ball at the one-yard line.

This game easily has the most juicy run-up of any of the four this weekend. You have the bad blood of two divisional rivals whose fan bases flat-out despise each other (OK, so Philly’s venom directed toward Dallas is a bit stronger than vice versa), you have last week’s shutout lingering in the mouths of the Eagles on top of a season sweep by the Cowboys, and you have the Bomberman, DeSean Jackson, predictably running his mouth against Dallas’ secondary. According to the article, cornerback Mike Jenkins describes Dallas’ gameplanning against Jackson as pretty vanilla–straight man coverage, probably with a bit of Cover 1 safety help over the top. It’s apparent that Jenkins and fellow CB Terence Newman aren’t threatened by the speed of D-Jax and Jeremy Maclin on the outside. Indeed, when you look at Dallas’ losses this year (2 to the Giants, a home loss to San Diego, and roadies against Denver and Green Bay), they weren’t beaten by speed receivers but by athletic, physical ones, guys like Hakeem Nicks and Antonio Gates and Brandon Marshall and Donald Driver who make their money by grinding out yards after the catch and using their bodies as shields. Unless Jackson and Maclin suddenly transform into over-the-middle threats, look for Andy Reid to call a lot of plays for the surprisingly reliable Jason Avant, who has the best hands on the team, TE Brent Celek, and screens/flares/circle routes to RBs Brian Westbrook and (Pitt alum!) LeSean McCoy.

Dallas’ offense, on the other hand, excels where it shouldn’t. The Cowboys aren’t supposed to be able to throw the ball deep without the long arms and longer legs of Terrell Owens or his ostensible replacement, Roy Williams. Instead, they’ve discovered Miles Austin, a supreme route-runner with excellent field vision who has developed a genuine rapport with Tony Romo. And what about that December curse? All Dallas did this year was close the season on a three-game winning streak, including road victories in December over the undefeated Saints and a shutout against Washington. Dallas isn’t supposed to rank 7th overall in rushing despite having a grand total of zero running backs eclipse the traditional benchmark of 1,000 yards, but there they are. A lot of people are touting Dallas as the NFC’s it-team, akin to the 2007 New York Giants who came into the playoffs with a lot of confidence and upset several teams (including Romo’s Cowboys and Favre’s Packers) to propel themselves into the Super Bowl. I don’t really get that vibe from Dallas. In fact, I don’t get any vibe whatsoever from Wade Phillips except perhaps a vague desire for barbecue ribs. Andy Reid’s squads have gone to five conference championships this decade for a reason, and that reason is Donovan McNabb’s propensity to save his best games for the playoffs (at least, the first two rounds anyway). Every Wild Card weekend has one legitimate upset. This is that game.
Eagles by seven.

RAVENS AT PATRIOTS (1:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS)
The Rams, Raiders, Jaguars, Bills, Panthers and Lions must be kicking themselves repeatedly. They’re the half-dozen teams that passed on Joe Flacco when they probably shouldn’t have², although the Lions may end up OK with Matthew Stafford. Flacco has improved in every significant area of quarterbacking, raising his completion percentage 3 points, his yardage by 540 and touchdowns by 7, and QB rating by nearly 9 points. He also reduced his fumbles from 11 all the way down to 2, losing neither of them. This shows me that Flacco is more comfortable with his teammates and takes care of the football. He’ll probably never be the sole reason the Ravens win an important game, but he’ll also never be the only reason the Ravens lose one either (see: Favre, Brett and Delhomme, Jake). The Ravens smartly drafted Ray Rice in the second round of the same draft in which they selected Flacco even though they already had Willis McGahee entrenched in the position. Rice ended up being an all-purpose threat and even led the team in receptions (second in receiving yards with over 700, ridiculous for a running back) and McGahee reformulated himself as a goal-line vulture. The increased offensive production came at a perfect time; while the Ravens defense is still a strong unit, it’s not as fearsome as in years past. Years of other teams poaching players like Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard (OK, so that’s just what Rex Ryan did) and the decline of the secondary due to injury and poor play have left the Ravens a tad vulnerable. It’s no wonder they lead the league in pass interference penalties–guys like Frank Walker consistently find themselves overmatched.

“Alright, all you have to do is blow out your knee on the next play, and we’ll have the league right where we want them!”

Will New England be able to exploit this area without Wes “Slot Machine” Welker, whose season ended unceremoniously last week against Houston? That’s the question on everyone’s mind³ this week and puts bigger targets on the backs of Randy Moss and Tom Brady. Sam Aiken may one day develop into a reliable outside threat and Julian Edelman is pretty much Wes Welker Lite, but right now they don’t have the necessary means to threaten the Ravens consistently. The Patriots also seem weak in the running game (Laurence Maroney + Fred Taylor = Fantasy Football Killbots) and their defense seems to be pretty mediocre (12th in pass defense, 13th in rush defense, tied for 23rd in sacks). In other words, more people believe in the efficacy of Santa Claus’ delivery system than the playoff potential of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. This is exactly where they want to be, underwhelming the league and inflating the confidence of the other teams. The Patriots are filled to the gills with role players and a few outstanding talents that push them over the top. They are a well-oiled regiment, and they will perform. Count them out at your own peril.
Patriots by ten.

PACKERS AT CARDINALS (4:30 p.m. Sunday, FOX)
The league saved arguably its most exciting game for last. Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald versus Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings. The unheralded running games of Beanie Wells and Ryan Grant. Opportunistic defenses looking to break games open. The defending NFC champion somehow on the ropes yet again, forced to earn the respect of a nation that has forgotten how a supposedly weak Arizona team came within mere seconds of a Super Bowl win last February. A classic squad coming off a stretch that saw them lose only one game in two months (and even that was a one-point loss on the game’s final play), overcoming the drama of their legendary leader bolting to a hated divisional rival. If you believe that momentum in the playoffs is paramount, Green Bay is a cinch to win. If you believe in homefield advantage and experience, Arizona is your squad. Trust me, I’ve read enough articles this week to see both sides of the argument. The weird thing is that no one, absolutely no one, has any idea how the game will play out even though these teams have played each other for two hours already this year. Here’s what I have so far:

1) Green Bay’s 3-4 defense largely predicates itself on the multi-faceted ability of Charles Woodson. He’s a shoo-in for Defensive Player of the Year (no one in the history of the NFL had won three Defensive Player of the Month awards before Woodson) and causes opposing quarterbacks to worry about his presence first and foremost.

2) No one is sure whether or not the Packers will be blitz-heavy or more traditional. They played mostly base defense last week in a meaningless exercise. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers loves bringing pressure from overload packages and cross-dog blitzes (essentially, Nick Barnett and either Clay Matthews or A.J. Hawk will cross each other’s paths before attacking the line in an attempt to confuse blocking assignments), but they’ve been killed before by quarterbacks who can read pressure and attack the vacated area of the field (e.g. Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger).

3) Expect Kurt Warner to abandon the run game often in lieu of the spread offense. As suggested above, Warner will be more interested in seeing how the defense lines up and will use his running backs as blockers, chips, and safety valves instead of as a between-the-tackles threat, which isn’t Arizona’s modus operandi anyway. In the same post, you’ll notice Kevin Seifert stressing Green Bay’s ability to create turnovers (40, most in the league). This is essentially a new way of packaging the same question: will Warner exploit holes in the pressure packages, or will the pressure force Warner into making bad decisions?

Cardinals defenders are so incapable of covering Jennings that they even fail at high-fiving him after a huge gain.

4) Will playing indoors help Arizona or Green Bay more? Logic suggests the Cardinals, but their home crowd isn’t really notorious for being impeding too much on the playcalling ability of opposing offenses. Green Bay’s team, particularly their skill players, are built for quick cuts. Just wait until Jennings, Grant, and TE Jermichael Finley get a little open space (and you can be absolutely sure Mike McCarthy is at this moment devising a plan to get those three as much open area to work with as possible). I suspect we’ll see a decent amount of toss, stretch, and sweep plays for Grant and a slew of drags, crosses, slants, and run-pass options to Jennings, Finley, and Driver.

Finally, we don’t know how much the injuries accrued last Sunday will affect this game. Anquan Boldin seems like an iffy proposition (at best) to play in this game, but his ability to overcome pain and play through it is one of the qualities that make him an elite receiver. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the Cardinals best ballhawk, went on record saying he can run just fine but backpedaling and lateral movement are still causing him pain. If he plays, he had better get backup. Charles Woodson’s shoulder will probably be sore but don’t expect it to affect him at all. NT Ryan Pickett will likely see some action for the first time in three weeks, but Capers won’t push him too hard in part because of the steady play of rookie B.J. Raji. I’m not suggesting a rout here, especially because this Packers team has a tendency to get tight in big-game atmospheres (both Minnesota games, the Pittsburgh roadie). I think Arizona jumps out early and maybe even has a lead at halftime, but Rodgers will rally the troops to an eventual win. Keep in mind that while Arizona has the homefield, Green Bay is the more talented team – were seeding doled out solely by record without preference to division winners, the Packers would be the third seed and Arizona would be sixth – and I’m confident in suggesting they’ll be moving on to the next round.⁴
Packers by six.

Disagree wildly with my predictions? Agree even more wildly? Feel free to leave a comment in the box below and I’ll respond with moderate speed! Sending an e-mail to selfserve@gmail.com will probably warrant a quicker response, but the quickest way is to add me on Twitter and tweet @greenbayblog. I’ll check back with everyone on Tuesday.

^{1. Two things directly stand out about this game, the most entertaining tennis match I’ve seen in my relatively short lifetime: 1) I’ve never rooted so fervently for anyone or anything that I knew was destined to fall short. Federer was never going to lose this match. No parallel universe even exists where Roddick was crowned 2009 champion. Still, I had no option but to pull for Roddick. It’s the draw of the underdog. 2) I was 45 minutes late to work that day because I refused to pull myself away from the television. I didn’t even bother making an excuse to my boss. I simply showed up, satisfied knowing I had witnessed tennis history (and I didn’t get fired!).}

^{2. The Rams deserve special demerit here for holding the second overall pick and passing over both Flacco and the more impressive Matt Ryan in lieu of defensive end Chris Long. Long is a decent talent buried in the misery of St. Louis, but how do you pass up these quarterbacks? Oh, because you just signed Marc Freaking Bulger to a huge extension nine months prior? And you wonder why the Rams went 1-15 this year.}

^{3. And by that, I mean the minds of those people who are specifically thinking about the Patriots and their passing attack, which I suppose is a much, much smaller percentage than “everyone.”}

^{4. If both my NFC predictions come true, then Philadelphia would travel to New Orleans and Green Bay would travel to Minnesota. That’s right, FavreFest III, sooner than expected.}